Look for a closer-than-expected outcome in the Montana special House election

It’s easy to forget that while things are imploding around Trump, some semblance of normal politics continues around the country.

The Montana state-wide special House election is a week away and though this should be an easy win for Republicans, it seems the party faithful are taking no chances.

Politico is reporting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is making a last-ditch $200,000 ad buy in support of Republican candidate Greg Gianforte. The spot will run from now through Election Day on May 25.

A fair amount of money has poured into a race the outcome of which should never have been in doubt. Over $8 million has been spent so far, mostly on the GOP side.

Democratic groups have mostly stayed on the sidelines, saving their money for more realistic targets down the road.

Rob Quist is the Democrat, in case you were wondering. The seat is vacant because former Rep. Rob Zinke agreed to be Trump’s  Secretary of the Interior.

A recent special election in redder-than-red Kansas was closer than Republicans liked. The Georgia 6th is a toss-up, also previously a GOP stronghold. And Mulvaney’s South Carolina seat will stay Republican but dwindling margins of victory matter in a political world looking for signals that Trump will end up being a bad dream.

In Montana, serious Republican money is being spent to make sure the signal is relatively ambiguous for now. They’ll win that seat but the 2018 midterms really are just around the corner and a bloodbath could await.

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