I’m not entirely comfortable with any poll conducted on behalf of one side or the other, but it’s news. In the Montana election for the open at-large House seat, a Democratic super PAC conducted a poll late last month finding Republican Greg Gianforte leading Democratic Rob Quist by just six point, 49 to 43 percent.
Respondents said they voted for Trump in November 55 to 33 percent, so that would be a significant swing. And all of these special elections are a referendum on Trump.
What makes special elections so dangerous for the incumbent party is that they are a great way for voters to poke the party in power without risking a change at the top.
If the poll is at all accurate it could suggest that kind of dynamic.