The Cook Political Report acknowledges it is unlikely Trump will lose Texas, but the fact that we are even talking about the possibility is nonetheless remarkable. In their forecasting model, they have moved Texas from Solid Republcan to Lean Republican, based in part on the RealClearPolitics polling average which has Trump up by a mere four points. They cite the growing Hispanic population and an enthusiasm advantage for Hillary in the Lone Star State. Who knew she could get ’em all riled up?
They also note that Mrs. Clinton is now leading in North Carolina, and have moved their prediction from Toss Up to Lean Democratic. They base this in part on her organizational advantage, a falling share of white voters, and new polling that has her up from between 4 to 7 percent.
Although they continue to call Florida a Toss Up, they say that Mrs. Clinton has led in 10 of the last 12 polls in the state, and maintains a lead in the RealCleatPolitcs average of 1.6 percent.
Polls generally tighten late in a campaign, but the state-by-state dynamic looks good for the Democratic nominee.