Behind the Ad: All in Rep. Tom Cotton’s family (#ARSen)

Who: The Rep. Tom Cotton (R) campaign for U.S. Senate
Where: Arkansas
What: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is the incumbent. U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton, at the advanced age of 36, is the GOP challenger, and an up-and-comer, as they say. The conventional wisdom is this will be a close race, one that the GOP could pick up. Having said that, Sen. Pryor is doing better at the moment than many had predicted.
According to an NBC-Marist poll:
In Arkansas, with less than six months until Election Day 2014, incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., leads Republican challenger Tom Cotton by 11 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 40 percent. (That finding is largely in line with other polling from that race since April showing Pryor either leading or tied.)
This is all to say that Arkansas may not be all that vulnerable for Democrats after all, for a number of reasons:
  • Among independents, Pryor has a seven-point edge over Cotton here (48 percent to 41 percent);
  • Pryor (with a 50 percent to 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating) is viewed in a more positive light than Cotton is (38 percent to 39 percent) among voters;
  • Pryor also is getting the support of 32 percent of voters who disapprove of President Obama’s job in Arkansas.
To go back to basics, all politics is local and Sen. Pryor seems to have  a certain advantages as a result.
As for ad, it’s very sweet, featuring Rep. Cotton’s dad offering some folk wisdom to his son.
Grade: Very positive, and effective in a way. I don’t know that it will move vote but not everything can shake the earth. B
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